Qini Curve#
An uplift-evaluation curve plotting incremental gain against the fraction targeted.
Important
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What it is#
The Qini curve is the visual evaluation tool for uplift models (causal or incremental-response models). It shows the incremental benefit gained by targeting customers ranked by predicted uplift score — the uplift-modelling analogue of an ROC curve, measuring how well the model finds persuadables. The higher and more “bowed upward” it is, the better.
How it’s built#
Rank customers by uplift score from highest to lowest, incrementally target the top x*%, and for each portion compute the **incremental response* — treatment responses minus control responses. The cumulative incremental response is what gets plotted.
Axes and baselines#
The X-axis is the proportion of the population targeted (0% to 100%); the Y-axis is the cumulative incremental response. A random-targeting diagonal marks the uplift you would expect from targeting at random, and the model curve ideally sits well above it.
Reading it, with an example#
Targeting the top 20% might show a treatment purchase rate of 18% against a control of 12% — a +6% incremental lift on those customers — and so on at 40%, 60%. A steep early rise means the model concentrates persuadables at the top; a flat, near-diagonal line means it is no better than random. The area between the model curve and the diagonal is the Qini coefficient.
Theme: Causal Inference & Uplift · All terminology
Hint
Mind map — connected ideas
Uplift Score · Qini Coefficient · Cumulative Incremental Gain (CIG) · Incremental Gain · Treatment Effect · Uplift Models
Hint
More in Causal Inference & Uplift
AUUC (Area Under the Uplift Curve) · Causal Effect · Causal Impact · Causal Inference · Causal ML (Causal Machine Learning) · Causal Trees · Cumulative Incremental Gain (CIG) · Cumulative Uplift · Incremental Conversions · Incremental Gain · Incremental Recovery Rate (IRR) · Incremental Revenue · Incremental Sales · Qini Coefficient
See also
Source article Adapted (context, re-expressed) in our own words from: Qini Curve (insightful-data-lab.com).