Uplift Score#
A model’s estimate of how much an action changes an individual’s outcome.
Important
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What it is#
An uplift score is the number an uplift model assigns to an individual, estimating the incremental impact — positive or negative — of a treatment (a campaign, discount or medical intervention) on that person’s likelihood of acting. It answers: how much more (or less) likely is this person to act if we intervene than if we do not?
The formula#
At the individual level,
A positive score means the treatment raises the chance of the desired outcome, a negative score means it backfires, and a score near zero means the treatment barely matters.
A worked example#
For a subscription campaign: Customer A has a treated probability of 0.40 versus 0.25 untreated — an uplift of +0.15, a strong target. Customer B sits at 0.70 versus 0.68 — just +0.02, barely worth the spend. Customer C is 0.10 versus 0.20 — an uplift of -0.10, meaning the campaign actively hurts (a “Do-Not-Disturb” case).
How it’s used#
Uplift scores let you rank and target the highest-scoring customers — the persuadables — while avoiding sure things and lost causes, and excluding negative-uplift customers who might churn or unsubscribe if contacted. Aggregated across the population, the scores build the uplift and Qini curves whose quality the Qini coefficient summarises.
Theme: Causal Inference & Uplift · All terminology
Hint
Mind map — connected ideas
Uplift Models · Qini Curve · Qini Coefficient · Conversion Rate Uplift · Treatment Effect · Posterior probability of uplift
Hint
More in Causal Inference & Uplift
AUUC (Area Under the Uplift Curve) · Causal Effect · Causal Impact · Causal Inference · Causal ML (Causal Machine Learning) · Causal Trees · Cumulative Incremental Gain (CIG) · Cumulative Uplift · Incremental Conversions · Incremental Gain · Incremental Recovery Rate (IRR) · Incremental Revenue · Incremental Sales · Qini Coefficient
See also
Source article Adapted (context, re-expressed) in our own words from: Uplift Score (insightful-data-lab.com).